fix(strommix): SMARD as primary source — accuracy parity with audit

Audit at 22:15 MESZ flagged the conventional sum (lignite + hard coal + gas + nuclear) as 19.1 GW in the widget vs 15.65 GW in reality. The breakdown showed the gap was Energy-Charts' `Fossil gas` (6.9 GW) which bundles natural gas + GuD + similar, while SMARD's `Erdgas` filter 4069 (3.8 GW) tracks just natural gas the way the widget label implies. SMARD is the canonical German grid feed; switching the primary source resolves the discrepancy directly. - New `lib/smard.ts` fetches the 11 relevant filter IDs in parallel: conventional (1223/4070/4069/1224), wind (4067/1225), solar (1226), hydro (1228), biomass (4066), other-conventional + pumped storage (1227/4071, surfaced separately), load (410). Two-step protocol (index.json → archive.json) handled inside; output is MW (MWh × 4) aligned to one common slot timestamp so every value on screen comes from the same point in time. - Aggregator route uses SMARD for production + load, Energy-Charts only for cross-border saldo + day-ahead prices (where SMARD has no convenient single-call endpoint). `dataSource: "smard" | "energy-charts"` flag travels in the response so the widget can attribute the numbers and fall back gracefully when SMARD is down. - StrommixBlock gets a "Werte prüfen" disclosure that lists every component (wind onshore + offshore, solar, the four conventional buckets, biomass, hydro, load) with its MW value and the slot timestamp + data source. Fact-check users can verify the addition themselves now without asking. Verified live: SMARD @ 21:00 UTC = lignite 8484 + hard coal 3480 + gas 3811 + nuclear 0 = 15.78 GW conventional. Matches the user's ground-truth 15.65 GW within sampling noise.
2026-05-04 23:47:52 +02:00
parent f4e4abd978
commit 96cd9e9c57
5 changed files with 290 additions and 62 deletions
@@ -250,6 +250,36 @@
    {/if}
  </div>

+  <!-- Production breakdown: aufklappbar damit user die Summe nachvollziehen
+       kann. Werte sind aufeinander abgestimmt (gleicher SMARD-15-min-Slot). -->
+  {#if live}
+    <details class="mt-3 text-xs">
+      <summary class="cursor-pointer text-neutral-600 hover:text-neutral-900">
+        Wert prüfen — alle Komponenten anzeigen
+      </summary>
+      <div class="mt-2 grid grid-cols-2 gap-x-4 gap-y-1 rounded-md border border-neutral-200 bg-neutral-50 px-3 py-2 tabular-nums sm:grid-cols-3">
+        <div class="text-neutral-500">Wind onshore</div><div>{fmtMw(live.windOnshoreMw)}</div>
+        <div class="text-neutral-500">Wind offshore</div><div>{fmtMw(live.windOffshoreMw)}</div>
+        <div class="text-neutral-500">Photovoltaik</div><div>{fmtMw(live.solarMw)}</div>
+        <div class="text-neutral-500">Braunkohle</div><div>{fmtMw(live.ligniteMw)}</div>
+        <div class="text-neutral-500">Steinkohle</div><div>{fmtMw(live.hardCoalMw)}</div>
+        <div class="text-neutral-500">Erdgas</div><div>{fmtMw(live.gasMw)}</div>
+        <div class="text-neutral-500">Kernkraft</div><div>{fmtMw(live.nuclearMw)}</div>
+        <div class="text-neutral-500">Biomasse</div><div>{fmtMw(live.biomassMw)}</div>
+        <div class="text-neutral-500">Wasserkraft</div><div>{fmtMw(live.hydroMw)}</div>
+        <div class="text-neutral-500 font-semibold">Last</div><div class="font-semibold">{fmtMw(live.loadMw)}</div>
+      </div>
+      <p class="mt-1 text-[11px] text-neutral-500">
+        Quelle: {live.dataSource === "smard"
+          ? "smard.de (Bundesnetzagentur)"
+          : "energy-charts.info (ENTSO-E + SMARD)"}
+        — 15-Min-Auflösung, Stand:&nbsp;{fmtTime(live.measuredAtUnix)}&nbsp;Uhr.
+        Konventionell = Braunkohle + Steinkohle + Erdgas + Kernkraft (Pumpspeicher,
+        Sonstige Konventionelle und Wasserkraft sind separat ausgewiesen).
+      </p>
+    </details>
+  {/if}
+
  <!-- Footer: disclaimer + explanation link + stale flag -->
  {#if disclaimerHtml || explanationHref || isStale}
    <footer class="mt-3 text-xs text-neutral-600 flex flex-wrap items-start gap-x-4 gap-y-1">
@@ -78,6 +78,12 @@
    "content-copy": {
      "body": "<path fill=\"currentColor\" d=\"M19 21H8V7h11m0-2H8a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v14a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h11a2 2 0 0 0 2-2V7a2 2 0 0 0-2-2m-3-4H4a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v14h2V3h12z\"/>"
    },
+    "transmission-tower": {
+      "body": "<path fill=\"currentColor\" d=\"m8.28 5.45l-1.78-.9L7.76 2h8.47l1.27 2.55l-1.78.89L15 4H9zM18.62 8h-4.53l-.79-3h-2.6l-.79 3H5.38L4.1 10.55l1.79.89l.73-1.44h10.76l.72 1.45l1.79-.89zm-.85 14H15.7l-.24-.9L12 15.9l-3.47 5.2l-.23.9H6.23l2.89-11h2.07l-.36 1.35L12 14.1l1.16-1.75l-.35-1.35h2.07zm-6.37-7l-.9-1.35l-1.18 4.48zm3.28 3.12l-1.18-4.48l-.9 1.36z\"/>"
+    },
+    "cloud-off-outline": {
+      "body": "<path fill=\"currentColor\" d=\"M19.8 22.6L17.15 20H6.5q-2.3 0-3.9-1.6T1 14.5q0-1.92 1.19-3.42q1.19-1.51 3.06-1.93q.08-.2.15-.39q.1-.19.15-.41L1.4 4.2l1.4-1.4l18.4 18.4M6.5 18h8.65L7.1 9.95q-.05.28-.07.55q-.03.23-.03.5h-.5q-1.45 0-2.47 1.03Q3 13.05 3 14.5T4.03 17q1.02 1 2.47 1m15.1.75l-1.45-1.4q.43-.35.64-.81T21 15.5q0-1.05-.73-1.77q-.72-.73-1.77-.73H17v-2q0-2.07-1.46-3.54Q14.08 6 12 6q-.67 0-1.3.16q-.63.17-1.2.52L8.05 5.23q.88-.6 1.86-.92Q10.9 4 12 4q2.93 0 4.96 2.04Q19 8.07 19 11q1.73.2 2.86 1.5q1.14 1.28 1.14 3q0 1-.37 1.81q-.38.84-1.03 1.44m-6.77-6.72\"/>"
+    },
    "play": {
      "body": "<path fill=\"currentColor\" d=\"M8 5.14v14l11-7z\"/>"
    },
@@ -0,0 +1,191 @@
+/**
+ * Direct SMARD (smard.de) fetcher — official German grid data, more
+ * accurate than Energy-Charts for production + load. Used by the
+ * Strommix-Live-Widget aggregator.
+ *
+ * SMARD layout (per filter_id):
+ *   1) `index_quarterhour.json` lists 7-day archive start-timestamps.
+ *      The last entry is the most recent archive.
+ *   2) `<filter_id>_DE_quarterhour_<archive_ts>.json` returns
+ *      `{ series: [[unix_ms, mwh_value | null], ...] }` — 672 slots
+ *      (7 days × 96 quarter-hours). Values are MWh per 15 min;
+ *      multiply by 4 to get average MW over that quarter.
+ *
+ * Filter IDs (DE region, MWh per 15 min):
+ *   1223 Braunkohle             4070 Steinkohle
+ *   4069 Erdgas                 1224 Kernenergie (DE = 0 since 2023)
+ *   4067 Wind Onshore           1225 Wind Offshore
+ *   1226 Photovoltaik           1228 Wasserkraft (run-of-river + storage)
+ *   4066 Biomasse               1227 Sonstige Konventionelle
+ *   4071 Pumpspeicher           410  Netzlast (Stromverbrauch)
+ */
+
+const SMARD_BASE = "https://www.smard.de/app/chart_data";
+
+export const SMARD_FILTERS = {
+  // Conventional (label-relevant)
+  lignite: 1223, // Braunkohle
+  hardCoal: 4070, // Steinkohle
+  gas: 4069, // Erdgas
+  nuclear: 1224, // Kernenergie
+  // Renewable
+  windOnshore: 4067,
+  windOffshore: 1225,
+  solar: 1226, // Photovoltaik
+  hydro: 1228, // Wasserkraft
+  biomass: 4066,
+  // Other
+  otherConventional: 1227, // Sonstige Konventionelle (NOT in conv-summe)
+  pumpedStorage: 4071, // Pumpspeicher (NOT in conv-summe — Speicher)
+  // Demand
+  load: 410, // Netzlast
+} as const;
+
+export type SmardFilter = keyof typeof SMARD_FILTERS;
+
+type SmardSlot = { tsMs: number; mwh: number };
+
+type IndexResp = { timestamps?: number[] };
+type SeriesResp = { series?: [number, number | null][] };
+
+async function fetchLatestArchiveStart(
+  filterId: number,
+  fetcher: typeof fetch
+): Promise<number | null> {
+  try {
+    const res = await fetcher(`${SMARD_BASE}/${filterId}/DE/index_quarterhour.json`, {
+      signal: AbortSignal.timeout(8_000),
+    });
+    if (!res.ok) return null;
+    const data = (await res.json()) as IndexResp;
+    const list = data.timestamps ?? [];
+    return list[list.length - 1] ?? null;
+  } catch {
+    return null;
+  }
+}
+
+async function fetchArchive(
+  filterId: number,
+  archiveTs: number,
+  fetcher: typeof fetch
+): Promise<[number, number | null][] | null> {
+  try {
+    const res = await fetcher(
+      `${SMARD_BASE}/${filterId}/DE/${filterId}_DE_quarterhour_${archiveTs}.json`,
+      { signal: AbortSignal.timeout(8_000) }
+    );
+    if (!res.ok) return null;
+    const data = (await res.json()) as SeriesResp;
+    return data.series ?? null;
+  } catch {
+    return null;
+  }
+}
+
+/**
+ * Pick the latest non-null slot from a series.
+ */
+function lastNonNull(series: [number, number | null][]): SmardSlot | null {
+  for (let i = series.length - 1; i >= 0; i--) {
+    const [tsMs, val] = series[i];
+    if (typeof val === "number" && Number.isFinite(val)) {
+      return { tsMs, mwh: val };
+    }
+  }
+  return null;
+}
+
+/**
+ * Fetch the latest non-null datapoint for one filter ID.
+ * Returns null when the index or archive is unreachable.
+ */
+export async function fetchSmardLatest(
+  filterId: number,
+  fetcher: typeof fetch
+): Promise<SmardSlot | null> {
+  const archive = await fetchLatestArchiveStart(filterId, fetcher);
+  if (archive == null) return null;
+  const series = await fetchArchive(filterId, archive, fetcher);
+  if (series == null) return null;
+  return lastNonNull(series);
+}
+
+export type SmardSnapshot = {
+  /** Timestamp common to all filters — the EARLIEST "latest" across the
+   *  set, so every value is from a slot that all filters have reported.
+   *  Unix seconds (not ms). */
+  measuredAtUnix: number;
+  /** Average MW for each filter at the aligned slot. Missing filters → 0. */
+  values: Record<SmardFilter, number>;
+};
+
+/**
+ * Fetch the entire snapshot in parallel + align timestamps.
+ *
+ * Strategy: pull each filter's `last_non_null`, then align to the
+ * MINIMUM of the timestamps so we don't show value A from 21:00 next to
+ * value B from 20:30. Returns the aligned timestamp + the value at that
+ * exact slot for each filter.
+ */
+export async function fetchSmardSnapshot(
+  fetcher: typeof fetch
+): Promise<SmardSnapshot | null> {
+  const filters = Object.entries(SMARD_FILTERS) as [SmardFilter, number][];
+  const results = await Promise.all(
+    filters.map(async ([key, id]) => {
+      // For 1224 (Nuclear) we expect 404 in DE — treat as 0/null gracefully.
+      const slot = await fetchSmardLatest(id, fetcher);
+      return { key, id, slot };
+    })
+  );
+
+  // Drop entirely-missing filters (1224 in DE returns 404 → null).
+  const present = results.filter((r) => r.slot != null) as Array<{
+    key: SmardFilter;
+    id: number;
+    slot: SmardSlot;
+  }>;
+  if (present.length === 0) return null;
+
+  // Aligned timestamp = the earliest of the latest stamps. Anything past
+  // it would lack data for at least one filter; we'd rather show a
+  // slightly-older fully-aligned snapshot than mismatched freshness.
+  const alignedMs = Math.min(...present.map((r) => r.slot.tsMs));
+
+  // For each filter, fetch the archive once more to read the value at
+  // the aligned timestamp (not just the latest). For most filters
+  // they'll match.
+  // Optimisation: re-walk the archives we already have if we cached
+  // them; here we re-fetch since each slot lookup needs the full series.
+  const aligned = await Promise.all(
+    present.map(async ({ key, id, slot }) => {
+      if (slot.tsMs === alignedMs) {
+        return [key, slot.mwh] as const;
+      }
+      // Need value at alignedMs — re-fetch archive (cached upstream).
+      const archive = await fetchLatestArchiveStart(id, fetcher);
+      if (archive == null) return [key, null] as const;
+      const series = await fetchArchive(id, archive, fetcher);
+      if (series == null) return [key, null] as const;
+      const found = series.find(([t]) => t === alignedMs);
+      const v = found?.[1];
+      return [key, typeof v === "number" && Number.isFinite(v) ? v : null] as const;
+    })
+  );
+
+  const values = {} as Record<SmardFilter, number>;
+  for (const key of Object.keys(SMARD_FILTERS) as SmardFilter[]) {
+    values[key] = 0;
+  }
+  for (const [key, mwh] of aligned) {
+    if (mwh != null) {
+      // 15-min energy (MWh) → average power over that slot (MW).
+      values[key] = mwh * 4;
+    }
+  }
+  return {
+    measuredAtUnix: Math.floor(alignedMs / 1000),
+    values,
+  };
+}
@@ -11,6 +11,10 @@ export type StrommixResponse = {
  // the rest of the values. Cross-border + prices may have their own,
  // earlier or later, timestamps.
  measuredAtUnix: number | null;
+  /** Where production + load came from. `smard` is canonical (German
+   *  grid feed); `energy-charts` is the fallback when SMARD is
+   *  unreachable. */
+  dataSource: "smard" | "energy-charts";
  // Production (MW)
  windOnshoreMw: number;
  windOffshoreMw: number;